Strategic Decision-Making under Uncertainty: A Thematic Analysis of Executive Perspectives in Emerging Markets

Abstract

In an era of global economic volatility and high market dynamics, making strategic decisions amidst uncertainty is a significant challenge for organizational leaders, especially in developing countries. Uncertainty stemming from institutional inconsistencies, market fluctuations, and limited information demands a more reflective, adaptive, and contextual decision-making approach. This research explores how senior executives in emerging markets respond to uncertainty in the strategic decision-making process. Using a qualitative phenomenological approach, data was collected through in-depth interviews with six key informants who held strategic positions in various industrial sectors. According to the Braun and Clarke (2006) model, the data analysis technique was carried out through thematic analysis to identify patterns of thinking and strategies decision-makers use. The research results show four main themes: (1) experience-based intuition, (2) strategic flexibility and adaptability, (3) internal team collaboration, and (4) scenario planning and risk mitigation. These four form a strategic framework that allows organizations to survive and thrive amidst uncertainty.